ESTIMASI ERROR: ANCHORING-ADJUSTMENT DAN REAKSI INVESTOR

Main Article Content

Riza Praditha

Keywords

Estimasi Laba, Anchoring-adjustment, Underreaction

Abstract

This study aims to test the estimation error of future earnings made by investors and analyze the psychological factors heuristic (anchoring-adjustment) experienced. The subjects in this study were accounting and financial management students at STIE Tri Dharma Nusantara who were proxied as investors. The research design used was within-subject laboratory experiments. The analytical method uses the General Linear Model - Repeated Measurement. The results showed that investors experienced bias in estimating future earnings. Bias is indicated by the magnitude of the error of estimated earnings has a tendency that is close to its initial value. Investors overestimate future earnings when they obtain information with a positive initial value, while investors underestimate the performance of future earnings if they obtain earnings information with a negative initial value. This means that investors experience anchoring-adjustment heuristics and underreaction behavior towards the earnings information presented.


 


Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menguji kesalahan estimasi laba masa depan yang dilakukan investor serta menganalisis faktor psikologi heuristik (anchoring-adjustment) yang dialami. Subjek dalam penelitian ini adalah mahasiswa akuntansi dan manajemen keuangan pada STIE Tri Dharma Nusantara yang diproksikan sebagai investor. Desain penelitian yang digunakan adalah eksperimen laboratorium within-subject. Metode analisis menggunakan General Linear Model – Repeated Measurement. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa investor mengalami bias dalam mengestimasi laba masa depan. Bias yang ditunjukkan dengan besaran kesalahan estimasi laba memiliki kecenderungan yang mendekati nilai awalnya. Investor megestimasi laba masa depan lebih tinggi (overestimate) ketika memperoleh informasi dengan nilai awal positif, sebaliknya investor underestimate terhadap kinerja laba masa depan jika memperoleh informasi laba dengan nilai awal negatif. Hal ini berarti bahwa investor mengalami heuristik anchoring-adjustment dan berperilaku underraction terhadap informasi laba yang disajikan.

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